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Project 02 · Payments strategy · NPCI UPI statistics, Jan–Oct 2026

Everyday spending lives on the QR code. Where does that leave the credit card?

UPI keeps setting records while its average payment gets smaller. Credit cards win the large purchases; UPI wins the daily habit. This project measures the split and designs a product that lets a premium issuer take part in small-ticket spending.

25.47 bnUPI transactions, Oct 2026 (record)
₹31.53 L crUPI value, Oct 2026
₹1,238average UPI payment, Oct 2026
~14×UPI value vs all card spend, monthly

UPI transactions per month

Billions

Average UPI payment

₹ per transaction = monthly value ÷ monthly volume

What the data shows

Month 2026UPI value (₹ L cr)Card spend (₹ L cr)UPI ÷ cards

The user problem

Persona: Rohan, 34, consultant, Gurugram. He holds a premium travel card on a global network for flights and hotels. Every day he also makes ten or more small payments by scanning QR codes from his savings account. Those payments earn no rewards, don't use his credit limit and never show up for his card issuer.

For a premium issuer, Rohan's daily habit is invisible. The issuer sees a few large transactions a month and loses the frequency that builds loyalty.

The product: a "credit on QR" companion

ElementDesign choiceWhy
Companion RuPay creditA virtual RuPay credit card issued on the same credit limit as the primary card, linked to UPI in two taps.RuPay is the only credit network allowed on UPI.
Small-spend rewardsFlat points on QR payments, capped each month, that pool into the primary card's rewards.Builds frequency without unlimited reward cost.
One statementPrimary and companion spends on one bill, one due date, one app view.No extra complexity for the customer.
Spend controlsPer-transaction and monthly caps for QR payments, set by the customer.Reduces fraud exposure and over-spending.

As a premium cardholder, I want my daily QR payments to earn the same rewards as my card, so that I don't have to choose between convenience and value.

The economics to test

Success metrics

Risks and trade-offs

Discovery plan

The proposal assumes premium cardholders want rewards on small QR payments. That is the riskiest belief, so I would test it first, with 8 people who hold a premium card and use UPI daily.

I believeHow I'll test itWhat would change my mind
Premium cardholders would move daily QR spends to credit for rewardsInterviews plus a fake-door test: an in-app "Link to UPI" button that counts tapsFewer than 1 in 10 people who see the button tap it
A second card number is acceptable if it lives only in the UPI appShow two concept screens; ask which they'd turn onMost reject any second card
Spend caps reduce fraud worry more than they annoyAsk people to set their own cap in a prototypeMost leave caps off or call them a hassle

Research status: not yet run.

Method

Monthly UPI volume and value for January–October 2026 come from NPCI releases as reported in the press. I derived average ticket size and the ratio of UPI value to RBI-reported card spend. The data (each row with its source link) and the script are in this folder; the SQL version is in the data workbench.